Junior tries to get back on the path to legend

Do you remember when Griffey Jr was the toast of Major League Baseball? Remember all the talk about Junior being the next Bonds or Mays? Or when stat guys were projecting that Junior might- just might, have a shot at breaking Aaron's record?

Well, 2000 was probably the last year we heard that buzz. Soon after Junior moved to Cinncy, the wheels fell of the wagon (almost literally). At 31, Junior had just come off 5th straight 40+ HR season (it would have been 8th, but he was injured in 1995). He had rebounded from that injury just fine and after 11 years in "the Bigs", he was sitting on 438 HRs.

In 1999 Junior took the money and ran home... back to Cinn. Thomas Wolfe might have been right about not going home. After a great inaugural year with the Reds, Junior's career took a injury-laced path. He has played 100 games only twice in 5 years. Every player is going to have an off year or a season with a nagging injury that puts a hiccup in the stats, but for Junior it's been a 3 1/2 year hiccup- or blackout. In 2001, Junior first injured his his ankle or hamstring or knee or whatever the heck it was back at the beginning. He finished with 22 HRs in 111 games. But the torment didn't stop then; The next 3 years were brutal.

G AB HR AVG
2002 CIN 70 197 8 .264
2003 CIN 53 166 13 .247
2004 CIN 83 300 20 .253
41

It took Junior 3 years to amass as many HRs as he had been hitting annually. And thus ended most speculation of Junior's grand plans to steal the title from Aaron.
If Junior had averaged a modest 30 HRs those 3 seasons, he would have 586 HRs right now- tying him with Frank Robinson and putting him behind faltering Sammy Sosa. Averaging 35 HRs during that time would put him in 5th at 601 HRs. And if he could have kept up a 40 HR pace, which wouldn't have been impossible, he would be 616 and be 36 years old, with another 5 years (possibly) to play.
I don't think he would have caught Aaron, but probably Ruth, but who knows when you have puffed up sluggers hitting 70+ HRs and guys over 40 hitting HRs or walking every AB.

1. Hank Aaron 755
2. Babe Ruth 714
3. Barry Bonds 708 (Active)
4. Willie Mays 660
5. Sammy Sosa 588
6. Frank Robinson 586
7. Mark McGwire 583
8. Harmon Killebrew 573
9. Rafael Palmeiro 569
10. Reggie Jackson 563
11. Mike Schmidt 548
12. Ken Griffey Jr. 537 (Active)

Junior did bounce back last year with 35 HRs in 128 games- quieting many like myself who thought it was over for Junior. He plays in a HR launch pad.

You can never plot out what will happen in a players career or what should have happened, but it's fun to take a look.